Heurísticas e vieses cognitivos do investidor brasileiro: uma perspectiva de finanças comportamentais

Abstract

The present study aimed to identify the heuristics and cognitive biases present in Brazilian investors based on their responses presented in the Report “X-Ray of the Brazilian Investor - 2nd Edition”, of the Brazilian Association of Entities in the Financial and Capital Markets (2019), as well as to relate potential sociodemographic characteristics to such occurrences. It is understood that this is one of the first studies to benefit from this data collection in the light of Behavioral Finance. Descriptive statistics were worked out from the occurrence count of heuristics and cognitive biases, as well as logistic regressions for probability models for each of the four biases selected for analysis, whose medians were greater than or equal to 1. In the set of analyzes for each bias, it was observed that: i) younger individuals with high schooling (Incomplete Higher Education or above) are more likely to present the Optimism bias; ii) younger individuals are more likely to present the Framing bias; iii) younger and highly educated individuals (Incomplete Higher Education or above) are more likely to present the Confirmation bias; and iv) it was not possible to state that a certain sociodemographic variable played an explanatory role in the emergence of the Mental Accounting bias. However, the identification, by the estimated logistical models, of the individuals most likely to incur in biases did not prove to be superior to the identification of such individuals through the classification of a model that classified all individuals presenting the bias.