Por trás das telas: um estudo de risco e retorno das ações recomendadas por influenciadores digitais brasileiros em 2023 e 2024

Abstract

This study investigates the performance of stocks suggested by Brazilian digital influencers in 2023 and 2024, as well as analyzes the reaction of potential young investors to a video produced in a similar pattern to those of the aforementioned influencers when choosing resource allocation. Using a quantitative approach, 88 stock recommendations made in 2023 and 2024 by 11 YouTube channels with more than 300,000 subscribers were analyzed. The performance of the recommended stocks was compared with the performance of the IBOVESPA index, using the average return and Sharpe Ratio as performance evaluation metrics, in addition to analyzing the trading volume of the suggested assets before and after the date of the purchase suggestion. Additionally, through a survey with undergraduate business students, the effects of stock purchase suggestions via video on the individual choices of potential investors were analyzed.

The performance of the stocks suggested by the influencers, as well as the portfolios formed by them, did not consistently outperform the stocks and portfolios of the control group, because while they presented higher returns, they also presented higher risk. The Sharpe Ratio metric of the recommendations, in turn, outperformed the IBOVESPA for different analysis windows, while the trading volume of the suggested assets also showed a consistent increase after the suggestion by the influencers. Finally, the survey indicated that females were more likely to follow the purchase recommendations of a video made in the format commonly seen in digital influencers. The work contributes to the discussion in the area of behavioral finance and reinforces the importance of financial education in view of the growing role played by social media in investment decisions