Uma análise da relação do desempenho de fundos imobiliários lastreados em shopping centers com variáveis macro e microeconômicas

Abstract

This research investigated the behavior in the profitability of real estate funds with assets backed by Shopping Centers in the period from june 2008 to april 2020. This article analyzes the predictive power of the auto regressive vector model (VAR) at a time that happens after a global financial crisis and precedes the COVID-19 pandemic event with strong consequences for the capital market in Brazil and worldwide. Real estate funds have a hybrid character as they have characteristics linked to the fixed and variable income market. The exogenous variables used in the study are relevant in the market and usually used as a benchmark by investors and the market. The results show that the real estate funds backed by Shopping Centers had better adherence to the behavior of the basic interest rate in Brazil to the detriment of the other variables analyzed, not corroborating with international surveys that show that American real estate funds are negatively related to the variations in rates interest rates in the North American market. Future research, using other variables, will be important to identify interferences in the profitability of the sectorial real estate funds.