Previsão de sobrevivência para empresas em recuperação judicial

Abstract

This study aims to develop an empirical model for predicting the survival of companies in reorganization, based on the perception of creditors, when they voted to approve or not the reorganization plan. The database is the main differential of the research: 565 cases consulted individually, all digital and processed in the state of São Paulo. To achieve the objective, a survival model was elaborated, based on eight variables: sector of the company, whether it is a publicly traded or closed company, if there is more than one company in the active pole of the process, age of the company when it required for reorganization, total debt listed and total number of creditors listed in the list of creditors, lower percentage of voting by number of creditors and by value of credits. Tests were prepared in three statistical models (Log-Normal, Log-Logistic and Cox), in seven different voting opportunities (more than 50% approval; up to 55% approval; up to 60% approval; more than 60% approval; up to 70% approval; more than 70% approval and; more than 80% approval). The statistical results showed that the most significant variables in the model were: total number of creditors, vote by number of creditors and vote by value of credits.