Cenários prospectivos para o setor de telefonia móvel no Brasil : um estudo sobre o potencial de rentabilidade

Abstract

The mobile industry is constantly changing mainly due to technological advances, in recent decades; we noticed an increasenumber ofusersvery expressive. Furthermore, in recent years, we noticed too it was realizedthat the way users communicate is changing. If the device before telephone was used for communication between two people simultaneously, currently the communication has to be net worked between people, services and "things". Like this the cell has acquired a function of connecting people to people, people services and business people. In this context, the aim of this study was to describe the possible future scenarios from 2015 to 2020for mobile telephony in Brazil and the impact on profitability of the sector. The primary data for the study were collected through interviews with professionals of vast experience and the secondary data through exploratory and literature searches. The methodology used to identify trends and uncertainties variables was intuitive and logical, through morphological analysis, the variables were correlated so that we obtained our possible scenarios, called: Scenario 1- Deceleration: characterized by the growth of data traffic but no increase profitability; Scenario 2-Morethan Expected: characterized by the growth of data traffic, increase in data Arpu, but would not increase the profitability of the sector; Scenario 3-Dream Consumption: characterized by grow thin data traffic and profitability, as the industry would have a change in the business model; and finally we Scenario 4-Continuity: by traffic growth, continued investment and profitability by controlling expenditure.With the possible scenarios mapped, it was observed that the mobile phone will continue to develop, fueled by the growth of data traffic, however, profitability does not necessarily accompany this pace. For profitability companies the growth of data traffic, identified the need to review the business model, so that the phone companies can capture new revenue generated by this type of traffic (data-services /applications).