Análise de desempenho de estratégias com carteiras formadas por ETFs no Brasil nos anos de 2012 a 2016.

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to analyze the different portfolios formed by Markowitz's (1952) mean-variance model and a naive strategy (1/N) composed of ETFs that can surpass the Bovespa Index. We used 13 ETFs listed on the São Paulo Stock Exchange from 01/01/2012 to 04/11/2016 to perform four portfolio optimization and weighting strategies: 1) Model with short sale and leverage restrictions; 2) Portfolios with a maximum position of 30% in each asset; 3) Wallets with a leveraged position, where it is allowed to be sold up to -30% and bought up to 130% in each asset (strategy 130/30); 4) Portfolios where each asset may be short-listed up to a limit of -5%, provided that the maximum percentage sold in the portfolio does not exceed -45%. For each of these strategies, balances were determined in temporal windows of 1, 3, 6 and 12 months. In all analyzes, there was no significant difference in terms of return, although naive portfolios (1/N) had marginally higher numbers. Optimized portfolios composed of ETFs in the different strategies presented a significantly lower risk than the naive portfolio of ETFs and the market index. There was no predominance in terms of risk and return in the comparison between naive portfolios composed of ETFs and naive portfolios composed of randomly chosen Stock Investment Funds (FIAs). ETFs feature ease of trading, transparency and economy, and can become an alternative in the composition of the investor's asset portfolio.