A utilização de múltiplos para a precificação de IPO’s no mercado brasileiro

Abstract

The objective of this study is to verify if the use of multiples for valuation of companies during their initial public offering is a good predictor of their stock prices. For this study, 71 IPO’s from the Brazilian market that met the selection criteria were analyzed among 117 IPO’s that were approved by the CVM during the period from 2004 to 2014, using the three valuation multiples with higher incidence of recommendations among the analyzed scientific studies surveyed for the elaboration of this work: Price to Book, Price to Earnings and Enterprise Value to EBITDA. This study has compared the multiples of IPOs with the same multiples of companies belonging to the same sector of activity (peers), in two distinct moments: (i) the day of the IPO's and (ii) the day before of the IPO. The analysis was structured in three models: (i) relating the multiple of the IPO to the mean, median and harmonic mean of this same multiple for their peers, (ii) adding dummies related to the year of IPO in the previous model and (iii) adding variables related to size, leverage and return to the previous model. For all models, MQO regressions were performed. As a result, the work found statistical significance to the multiple Price to Earnings when the mean was used in the Model III, showing significance with the use of the difference of returns. Statistical significance was also founded to the multiple Enterprise Value to EBITDA when the mean was used to the Model I, which show the best adjustments demonstrated by R², although it did not find statistical significance for the Price to Book multiple.