A estrutura a termo da taxa de juros e seu impacto no teste de adequação de passivo

Abstract

With the publication of IFRS 4, it was established that the Insurance Enterprises should submit their Technical Reserves to the Liability Adequacy Test - LAT. The Brazilian regulation for this test requires that the Current Estimate is discounted by a Term Structure of Interest Rates-TSIR. As the literature offers several methods for its construction, it will be necessary to choose among them and this condition the result of the LAT application. This paper aims to discuss and apply the interpolation technique by Cubic Spline, the parametric model of Svensson and the one-factor equilibrium model of Vasicek, the construction of TSIR which will be used to discount the Current Estimates of future cash flows under insurance contracts of life-contingent annuities and pensions. As a specific goal, we want to know and analyze the magnitude of the differences found in the results of the LAT from the use of different TSIR models. Rates traded on BM&FBOVESPA will be used to estimate the parameters that characterize each of the models presented. Finally, cash flows hypothetical and observed (Insurer practical case) will be used to perform robustness tests. The results indicate that: 1) The result of Liability Adequacy Test is sensitive to the choice of the model used in the construction of TSIR; 2) The sensitivity increases with the longevity of cash flow, to the extent that the current estimate is sensitive to average term of cash flow; 3) The LAT is an uncertain value in time, as TSIR depends on the macroeconomic factors prevailing at the time of its construction; 4) The adoption of an ultimate forward rate (UFR) for the Brazilian insurance market should be evaluated by the supervisor